Underworld Overhaul, Pt. 2: Monster Level Matrix

You can’t really use the by-the-book OD&D Monster Level Matrix (Vol-3, p. 10) to generate the level of monsters in standard encounters; it’s almost comically, ultraviolently, overkill. We’ve noted this a number of times (links one, two, three, four). Every later edition of D&D agreed that it needed to massively dial down the danger level; including Gygax in AD&D (who might have actually over-corrected in that case). Here's a look:

Original Monster Level Matrix

Observation 1: According to this table, on the 1st dungeon level, any of monster levels 1-4 can appear regularly. Based on our initial Equivalent Hit Dice (EHD) analysis (link), the average monster on this level is not 1 EHD in power; it’s actually a little over 3 EHD that our 1st-level PCs can expect for a “standard” encounter there. Any one such encounter is a deadly threat, even solo against 4 PCs, say.

Observation 2: By the 3rd level of the dungeon, monsters across the entire spectrum can be expected regularly. For example, within a half-dozen encounters, our presumably 3rd-level PCs can expect to confront one 6th-level monster, such as: an adult dragon, 10-headed hydra, vampire, balrog, or purple worm (various EHDs between 12 and 39 for these types). And there’s simply no way that a 3rd-level party can hope to regularly run into encounters with even a solo creatures of EHD in the 20’s or 30’s and expect anything other than a TPK.

You get the basic idea regarding that original Monster Level Matrix. Just to nail the issue home, here’s the demographics resulting from stocking dungeons blindly via that table. Using a data file that matches the original Monster Level Matrix, this is produced with the current Arena program using the switches -n=10000 -v -z=4 -rs (that is: a population of 10,000 men, versus monsters, in parties of 4 at a time, reporting summary statistics; with default dungeon treasure, 24 fights/year, and 50 years total time):

Note that even after the 12 million separate combats that this represents (the 10K population is constantly refreshed as adventuring men get killed off), it's almost impossible for anyone to have graduated past 6th level. Perhaps more troubling is the fact that their isn't any evidence of higher average ability scores (esp., Str, Dex, Con) at the higher levels; this is a signal that character ability is effectively a non-issue, and affords no benefit in survivability. Basically everyone is just being thrown into a big random meat-grinder.

Revised Monster Level Matrix

So what do we recommend for a replacement to that table today? Here’s a simple solution concept: Let’s say that an Nth-level party, operating on the Nth-level of the dungeon, should expect to run into monsters of Nth-EHD, on average. (Obviously, that is far from what the original matrix produces). To the extent that the Monster Level Tables partition various EHDs into coarser chunks (see last post), we’ll simply reflect the same in our new matrix: six monster level tables are synchronized with six rows in the new matrix. Each row of the matrix covers the same dungeon levels that the equivalent monster table covers in terms of EHD. In each case, the average die-roll of “3-4” should sit where the row matches the column number (i.e., where party level matches monster EHD; symmetric down the diagonal). The result is the following (as in the data file on GitHub):

If we run our Arena simulation using this new matrix (same parameters as above), then we get the following demographics for the adventurers in question:

Now, that's still a hard game; while there are more 7th- and 8th-level characters present, still no one succeeded at cracking Name level (after 50 years of adventures by the 10K population). No one can accuse us of giving away the store with this modification; arguably we could dial down the generating matrix even more than this. Note, however, that character abilities do now seem to correlate with survival, especially in the average Dexterity column here (for man-vs-man fights, we've previously seen that Strength is more fundamental). So this might represent a simple and reasonable upper bound for Monster Level Matrix difficulty. Also, if the DM regularly places "special" treasure at a steep multiplier over table-generated treasure (as sayeth the book), then advancement would be more swift than this; at least the PCs would have some chance of surviving to benefit from such treasure caches.

Still to come: Monster numbers and treasure value.

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Underworld Overhaul, Pt. 1: Monster Level Tables

We noted previously that numbers for monsters and treasure, in the dungeon in OD&D, were at their root determined by DM fiat. Now we'll spend a few posts trying to massage what is there into a more formal and evidence-based system.

The first part here is probably the easiest: Re-aligning the monster level tables via some underlying rule. Fortunately, we have the fairly well-justified Equivalent Hit Dice (EHD) values available from our previous Arena/Monster Metrics program, and it is relatively straightforward to turn those into a rule for distributing monsters among the 6 "monster levels" in OD&D. Based on inspection of the original book tables, comparing to our EHD values, and also balancing with various experiments in the Arena program, we propose the following as a pretty good definition (see also on GitHub):

Further below, you'll see a complete listing of underworld OD&D monsters parsed into the six levels according to this metric. Most monsters stay at the same level as they appear in the Vol-3 book (p. 1011), although there are some notable changes. Also, monsters are distributed fairly evenly across the six levels, with around 16 monsters each on average; fewer at Levels 1-2 (about 10 apiece), and more in the catch-all Level 6.

To compare to the book system, you can see an old analysis here, in which shaded rows indicate the original monster tables. The book tables have cutoffs at about EHD 1/2/3/4/6/10. But with better monster metrics, you can see in the link that 3rd level has a big problem with how few monsters it keeps under that rule. If we used that book rule to assess the current expanded monster list, then the problem would remain; only about 9 or 10 monsters at levels 2-3; and an enormous dump of 35 monsters all at level 6. So this strongly indicated that we needed to massage the book pattern a bit for a somewhat better distribution.

In the new list below, the third column in the list below also shows the kill ratio attributable to each monster within a level, based on about 2.4 million combat simulations of 4-man fighter parties assaying into a standard-type dungeon, and encountering bands of monsters at equivalent EHD values. (This was generated with the current Arena program using these command switches: -n=10000 -v -z=4 -rk.) Monsters in each level are sorted by increasing kill ratios, so that the whole list runs uniformly from lower to higher danger.

The kill-ratio organization also allows us to look for outliers at the start or end of a table, which may argue for incrementing or decrementing the EHD value of any monsters "on the bubble", so to speak, and this was done manually in a few cases. (Specifically, EHDs for the following were hand-tuned based on this analysis: Large Spider, Giant Beetle-Bombardier, Hell Hound, Harpy, Hero, Swashbuckler, Gray Ooze, and Zombie.) As one example, the Zombie (at the newly-recognized 2 HD) is inevitably going to stick out as either the strongest Level 1 monster, or the weakest Level 2 monster; we've set the EHD at 2 so it appears at Level 2 and smooths out the tables sizes a bit.

With that in mind, here are the proposed new Monster Level Tables:

#	Level 1 Monsters	Kill %
1	Giant Rat	3%
2	Giant Centipede	4%
3	Kobold	7%
4	Skeleton	9%
5	Goblin	9%
6	Large Spider	9%
7	Bandit	10%
8	Orc	10%
9	Giant Beetle, Fire	13%
10	Stirge	13%
11	Hobgoblin	13%
#	Level 2 Monsters	Kill %
1	Zombie	4%
2	Gnoll	7%
3	Berserker	7%
4	Giant Frog	7%
5	Lizard Man	8%
6	Gray Ooze	10%
7	Giant Ant, Worker	11%
8	Giant Hog	13%
9	Giant Lizard	15%
10	Wererat	16%
#	Level 3 Monsters	Kill %
1	Ghoul	2%
2	Giant Toad	3%
3	Bugbear	3%
4	Giant Tick	4%
5	Giant Weasel	4%
6	Giant Beetle, Bomb.	4%
7	Ogre	6%
8	Werewolf	6%
9	Wight	6%
10	Doppleganger	6%
11	Wereboar	7%
12	White Ape	9%
13	Wraith	13%
14	Shadow	14%
15	Warrior	14%
#	Level 4 Monsters	Kill %
1	Minotaur	3%
2	Werebear	4%
3	Giant Snake	4%
4	Harpy	5%
5	Giant Beetle, Boring	5%
6	Giant Wasp	5%
7	Owl Bear	5%
8	Swashbuckler	6%
9	Weretiger	6%
10	Gargoyle	6%
11	Gelatinous Cube	6%
12	Cockatrice	6%
13	Giant Ant, Warrior	7%
14	Myrmidon	7%
15	Hero	11%
16	Hell Hound	15%
#	Level 5 Monsters	Kill %
1	Troll	1%
2	Hydra, 6 Heads	2%
3	Manticore	3%
4	Displacer Beast	3%
5	Giant Beetle, Stag	3%
6	Giant, Stone	3%
7	Lord	5%
8	Giant Slug	6%
9	Mummy	6%
10	Giant, Hill	6%
11	Giant, Frost	7%
12	Superhero	8%
13	Salamander	8%
14	Minotaur Lizard	9%
15	Invisible Stalker	9%
16	Giant Scorpion	9%
17	Spectre	11%
#	Level 6 Monsters	Kill %
1	Ettin	0%
2	Giant Beetle, Rhino.	0%
3	Giant, Cloud	0%
4	Giant, Fire	1%
5	Hydra, 10 Heads	1%
6	Fire Lizard	1%
7	Roper	1%
8	Umber Hulk	1%
9	Balrog	1%
10	Chimera	1%
11	Golem, Flesh	1%
12	Carrion Crawler	1%
13	Wyvern	2%
14	Phase Spider	2%
15	Giant, Storm	2%
16	Dragon, White	4%
17	Dragon, Black	4%
18	Gorgon	5%
19	Dragon, Green	6%
20	Dragon, Blue	6%
21	Mind Flayer	6%
22	Dragon, Red	6%
23	Ogre Mage	6%
24	Medusa	7%
25	Will-O-Wisp	7%
26	Basilisk	8%
27	Vampire	9%
28	Purple Worm	9%

In Praise of Carl Sargent

I'm a big fan of Carl Sargent's work for D&D. In the mid-1980's to 1990's he worked for both Games Workshop and TSR. At GW he worked on the Fighting Fantasy books (under the pseudonym Keith Martin). At TSR, he worked on numerous setting/adventure books for Greyhawk, such as the From the Ashes boxed set (something of an attempt to resurrect Greyhawk after it was razed in Greyhawk Wars), Iuz the Evil, The City of Skulls, and the Night Below boxed mega-adventure. He also wrote PC2, Top Ballista, and co-wrote GAZ 13 The Shadow Elves, for the BECMI D&D line.

I find that Sargent's work is, without fail, incredibly careful, thoughtful, detailed, and with near encyclopedic awareness of the prior game literature (e.g., whether working in the campaign world of Greyhawk or the Known World or whatever). He also has a real streak of imagination. For example, I recently read PC2 Top Ballista, which is a fanciful and attractive product (I would not want to write it off as a total joke, as one might from the title and cover). I honestly enjoyed the rocket-powered flying city, skygnomes with a biplane aerial academy, and the great library with its centuries-old undead floating-head librarian (get it?) armed with silence and death spells. At the same time, he presents alternative rules for falling clearly based on real-world speed/times, some obvious research into early biplane fighters, etc.

I might guess that Sargent's legacy for D&D is unfortunately constrained by having worked in a very conservative era for TSR: in the shadow of Gygax's departure, in an artistic contraction from the culture wars of the 80's, with very restrictive design dictates that ultimately wanted all the products to be PG-rated at best. His 165-page source book for the Great Kingdom, Ivid the Undying, was cancelled by TSR circa 1993 and never published (although later released as a free download online).

My general instinct is that Carl Sargent is a writer very much after my own heart. I would have liked to see what he'd create for D&D in a less restrictive context.

However, here's the surprising thing that I just learned: Sargent also held a PhD in parapsychology, and was quite a major figure in experiments claiming to show evidence for psi-powers, remote sensing, ESP, etc. He appears in the Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience. His experiments claimed among the highest effect sizes for remote-sensing, until scientist Susan Blackmore visited his lab in the 90's and pointed out numerous violations of protocol (actually terminating her own prior belief in the paranormal). Sargent left the field after that, and at the moment I can't find any information on what he's done since then.

The one additional kick is that I can't help but note that Top Ballista (1989) is riddled with lots of ESP-type powers and counter-powers. Perhaps even better, he features a new equipment item for the tinker/mechanic skygnomes, the Skyhook Set, "essential for best use of the Machine Building skill... an old gnome saying is 'a good gnome needs naught but skyhooks'". Then in Susan Blackmore's essay on his work (2001), she cites the philosopher Daniel Dennett as asserting of the parapsychologists: "they are looking for 'skyhooks' rather than 'cranes.'". Weird echoes in a crazy world. Maybe some actual belief in the supernatural is of benefit to a fantasy game writer.

Carl Sargent, we miss you!

Links:

• Carl Sargent on Wikipedia
• Carl Sargent on Greyhawkery
• Susan Blackmore's essay on paranormal research

The Master's Monastery, Ep. 3

Apru 7-8, 4729.

• Personae: Brother Maccus (Human Ftr2), Long Tim (Hobbit Ftr2), Aslak the Unclean (Dwarf Wiz2), Tia Birdfoot (Elf Wiz1/Thf3). The party pays living expenses for the past 3 weeks, deletes any rations on record, buys two new potions of healing from the local witch, and then proceeds to the monastery ruins. 
• Descending into the cellars beneath the ruin, Tim notes in the entry chamber that the pile of bones and skins seems larger than last time. The group skirts the wall to avoid it.
• Eagerly proceed to the bandits lair, where the chief and servant boys were trapped to their doom in panic room (storage crates stacked over trap door). Distressed to discover that they have chopped their way out with an axe, writing "I will return a**holes" on the wall on chalk. Aslak adds "Wangs" to the graffitti. Open the inner trap door and a stone-weight of iron balls pour out on their heads: 4 points of damage to Aslak & Maccus. Treasure is gone.
• Listen at a nearby door and hear dastardly goblins within in. Break open the door; Aslak casts sleep and 5 of 6 goblins hit the floor; Maccus cleaves the last one in twain with a sword. No treasure found.
• Twenty feet later, at an intersection, Tia's keen ears detect more goblins, possibly lying in wait, to the west. Party goes south instead to a goblin storage room piled high with boxes, barrels, and sacks; no exit to be seen. At this point the half-dozen goblins cut off the intersection, and throw darts at them; all miss. Aslak charms the largest goblin (whose language he speaks); Maccus and Tim charge into the front row of spears and chop down two goblins. Morale for the others breaks, and they retreat to their guard chamber.
• Charmed goblin, Ambros, is interrogated and says the goblins have a treasure chest, trapped with darts, unless the proper key is used. Also informs them that further east there are "giant goblins" (bugbears), which concerns party. Looking down the west corridor, they see overturned tables and beds, goblin-spears, and goblins warning them off. Party calls out to turn over treasure; reaction dice say cowed goblins comply. They push out chest and throw the key. Inside: 2,000 cp and 50 gp. Party loads up sacks with treasure, tells Ambros to rejoin friends and murder any bandits if they show up again.
• Return to village. Treasure split up. Long Tim levels up to 3rd (Swordsman). Tia throws celebration; sets tradition of leveled-up member being forced to eat bowl of garlic and then down a quart of wine. Discussion of whether only one clove of garlic, or one per level. In interest of time, Maccus and Aslak drink healing potions so as to return next day.
• Return to dungeon and corridors further west. First corridor finds flickering red light to south. Proceeding, look in half-dozen cells on each side; barred windows with an old corpse in each shackled to wall. In end room: a table with two skeletons in chainmail, slumped in chairs, and a fist-sized glowing red gem! 
• Party suspects trap. Maccus notes doors to cells are unlocked; Aslak pounds spikes in to shut them. Takes pole and pokes gem which rolls off table; dead skeleton guards begin cackling hysterically; unshackling and pounding sounds from behind. Party grabs gem and runs, but Maccus is slow. Rolls for animate corpses to force open doors; 3 succeed, cutting off Maccus from rest of party. First one is stout and takes distressing punishment; dagger stuck in skull, arrow shot through throat, and two magic missile spells before he goes down. Another lurches through door but Maccus cuts that down with one stroke. Party escapes. Gem found to be clear glass with magic light that flickers red.
• Further east, party sneaks past pair of wood-store chambers with many giant fire beetles. Enter large storage hall with mostly empty and smashed crates along walls, stretching to south. Exit via side door to west.
• First small room: Pile of smashed wood, wood and walls stained reddish up to waist height. Second room: A 10' wooden vat with brass pipe through south wall. Following pipe: A room with 5' depressed floor, a few inches of filthy water within. Aslak steps through to look around next corner. Surprised to find himself trapped by giant acid amoeba, his boots already disintegrating off his feet! Party jumps to rescue, Maccus tries but fails to pull him out. Chops with daggers and swords, lantern fire applied to no effect. Aslak gruesomely consumed by the ooze, skin and flesh sliding off his bones. Tim finally chops the thing to death, but his sword disintegrates into fragments in the slimy mass.
• Party proceeds past room with several old empty barrels. Enters large L-shaped chamber with many old barrels in wall racks, mostly broken and empty. Turns corner to find many nests in the barrels; 3 stirges appear. New dwarf shows up: Jam Falcon, "Hey, watch out for those stirges!"; throws dagger, bit by stirge for 6 points, immediately dies. Swordsmen chop two down; 5 more fly out to attack. Party runs and succeeds at slamming door shut to cut them off.
• New dwarf shows up: Banjo Saskin. Conveniently brings spare sword for Long Tim. Group proceeds back to storage chamber, finds three doors in lower part of large chamber (east, south, and west). Listening at central door, succeed at hearing normally quiet bugbear voices. Try to force open door, Maccus fails initial roll. Group runs to westernmost door and bursts into same room that way, catching bugbears ambushing first door by surprise. Banjo charms bugbear in center of room (DM note: winds of magic say this is a one-time occurrence). Group mass-fires attacks at bugbear near door to no effect; he twists and dodges, several arrows sunk in door. Smashes Maccus in armored leg with large spiked mace; rather frail Maccus reduced to 1 hit point. Bugbear at other side of room throwing spears. Charmed compatriot attacks him, misses. Maccus, Tim, and Tia finally fell first bugbear. Tia hides behind boxes for backstab. Tim and Maccus cut down the remaining one.
• Treasure chest found; searching for traps, skittering sound within. Charmed bugbear interrogated; what is it? Pet giant centipede. Any way to prevent it from coming out? No, it always jumps out tries to bite the opener. Bugbear opens chest and giant poisonous centipede indeed jumps and furiously bites neck, arms, ears, etc; thick-skinned bugbear laughs it off and offers party to pet it. Party declines and takes treasure instead; 1,000 sp and 100 gp. Bugbear ordered to stay and kill any human bandits he sees.
• Back at village, party splits treasure and XP. Brother Maccus becomes 3rd level (Swordsman). Arranges room at inn to rest & recover, as he will require 4 weeks to heal from his fractured leg and other injuries.

Improv and RPGs at Paul's Gameblog

In which a sharp lesson is delivered about inviting Yours Truly to be a player in one's game:

Improv and RPGs at Paul's Gameblog