tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post8330789589451222136..comments2024-03-26T15:35:56.004-04:00Comments on Delta's D&D Hotspot: Random Walks in the Dungeons of the Slave LordsDeltahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-87158941218617390512023-04-22T19:34:42.042-04:002023-04-22T19:34:42.042-04:00For the case of a party that won't backtrack (...For the case of a party that won't backtrack (unless forced to by a dead end), the graph can be simplified and it becomes evident that they'd reach #10 50% of the time, 25% chance of #19, and 25% chance of #21. I'd expect intermediate levels of backtracking to produce odds in between.CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10901046738135631846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-43402272868740718692023-04-18T18:05:00.747-04:002023-04-18T18:05:00.747-04:00I'm still curious about what the results would...I'm still curious about what the results would look like with different thresholds for advancing vs. retreating. My sense is that real players will keep with a direction they picked at least 2/3 or 3/4 of the time and will almost never reverse directions more than once or twice unless they really hit a dead end. But I have no idea whether that would actually change the end result.Joshua Macyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10838733328132877699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-82815011031580333742023-04-18T16:56:37.451-04:002023-04-18T16:56:37.451-04:00This type of analysis really floats my boat. It is...This type of analysis really floats my boat. It is why I continue to deeply enjoy many of the posts from the many years the blog has been running.<br /><br />As an aside, it reminds me a bit of the end sequence in BBC2's The Adventure Game from the very early 80s. Players had to negotiate a hexagonal node grid while avoiding standing on an invisible vortex that would move every time they moved. As a kid my sister and me would argue over what the best strategy was to negotiate the grid safely. No mathematics just empirical observation. No idea if either of us was right.<br /><br />I've written this problem up as a D&D situation. Jacob72https://www.blogger.com/profile/17268402292420473229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-91232433775322053412023-04-18T11:59:41.486-04:002023-04-18T11:59:41.486-04:00Very interesting about the term "railroading&...Very interesting about the term "railroading"! Definitely the inescapable-capture that occurs at the end of the prior module is one of the most abrasive things that can happen in a game. I thought it would go down easier in the context of a tournament one-shot but my players were still kind of upset by it.<br /><br />The link from area #11 to #6 and #12 is represented in my graph by location #24 (an unlabeled intersection in the original module). The line from #24 to #12 is the tunnel from that intersection through #13 and #14. <br /><br />I almost noted that all the exits have some complicated obstacle to make use of them, so as a zero-level assumption I figure they're all about as hard to get through. #19 is hidden similarly to #10 (albeit different direction). Area #21 I was looking at and I'm not even sure how my PCs had any way to get through it. Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-36361385876246376342023-04-18T11:52:50.645-04:002023-04-18T11:52:50.645-04:00Cool! I think you're talking about the post-du...Cool! I think you're talking about the post-dungeon expansion that comes after the tournament part (which we didn't get to in our con game).Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-45977231467496578812023-04-18T11:51:37.097-04:002023-04-18T11:51:37.097-04:00I had a version that included all the mid-tunnel w...I had a version that included all the mid-tunnel waypoints and the results came out differently, so the graph does make a difference. There's also a significant (and stable) difference between #19 and #21 -- the latter being one step off a loop gives more ways to get there, for example.Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-82228692994304962092023-04-18T09:48:14.696-04:002023-04-18T09:48:14.696-04:00I truly appreciate your view that "the acid t...I truly appreciate your view that "the acid test is gameplay." I wish more would uphold that.<br /><br />Also, cool analysis! But I do wonder: why isn't there a line from 11 to 12? PCs can go that way through 14 and 13. Also, 11 and 6 are linked.<br /><br />A major factor, though, is [SPOILER] that the exit at 10 may be accessible, strictly speaking, but to discover that it's an exit, PCs have to contend with a giant crab while swimming hundreds of feet underwater through tunnels with dead ends described in the module as "death traps." In the rules given, you need a CON of 20 to swim to the exit, if you make no wrong turns, so the prisoners have to figure out how to rig non-obvious airbags to get out. This ain't easy. Notably, all the pregens in the module have CON 16 or higher, except #9 who has a "mere" 15 CON. Most parties will have zero chance of getting out this way.<br /><br />So: not all exits are equal and maybe DMs should not count on an exit at 10.<br /><br />Off topic, you and your readers may be interested to know that this module is the target of the oldest known use of the term "railroading" for a module. Ken Rolston remarked in Dragon 133 (1988) that "A little railroading is required to set the PCs up for this scenario" coming from the previous one A3. (This is mentioned on the RPG Diegesis blog's article on railroading.)<br /><br />Thanks again for the cool analysis. I ran A4 once in middle school in the early '80s, and recall none of the play.Tom Van Winklehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00498476328377801884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-73408570915097504122023-04-17T18:38:54.388-04:002023-04-17T18:38:54.388-04:00Last I ran this was in 84? So I don't recall h...Last I ran this was in 84? So I don't recall how the party escaped the caves. However, they did beat the looters, took their stuff, and then took on the slavers. I recall that they beat them with some shenanigans, and one player used a skull as a club throughout the entire session...Vance Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03911245780875316627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-77426071641904419632023-04-17T07:24:30.749-04:002023-04-17T07:24:30.749-04:00I wonder how sensitive your results are to the wei...I wonder how sensitive your results are to the weight you give advance vs turn back? Especially at the core point. They look suspiciously close to flip a coin whether you'll exit from the top half or bottom, and flip a coin between the bottom exits, which makes me wonder if the graph matters much at all. Joshua Macyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10838733328132877699noreply@blogger.com