tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post4995863231203541538..comments2024-03-26T15:35:56.004-04:00Comments on Delta's D&D Hotspot: Arena v1.11: Man vs. ManDeltahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-56737701407765127312016-05-31T14:14:12.711-04:002016-05-31T14:14:12.711-04:00Right, Daniel has it above. If you have a finite p...Right, Daniel has it above. If you have a finite population of men-types, and the highest-level fighters face of to the death in a round robin, the end result is that there's only one fighter above 1st level who survives. Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-48793731154277665022016-05-31T14:12:26.941-04:002016-05-31T14:12:26.941-04:00That's right.That's right.Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-18122974867700153062016-05-31T14:12:04.236-04:002016-05-31T14:12:04.236-04:00That's not bad, I could totally see that.That's not bad, I could totally see that.Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-23423008669977906332016-05-31T14:11:40.579-04:002016-05-31T14:11:40.579-04:00Good idea! At the moment, I don't know.Good idea! At the moment, I don't know.Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-68484793031017434122016-05-31T14:11:17.474-04:002016-05-31T14:11:17.474-04:00I must say, there's so many moving complex pie...I must say, there's so many moving complex pieces in the simulation (special abilities and whatnot) that I'm not sure how one would go computing these statistics in a formal fashion. The "Monte Carlo" simulations are the only way I can personally see how to do it. (I think Gygax's early circle did have a university statistics professor at the time, but I'm not sure if he had any input on this end of things). Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-77746395202056864102016-05-31T14:06:17.242-04:002016-05-31T14:06:17.242-04:00I think without the aging effects, then it could b...I think without the aging effects, then it could be indefinite/almost the entire surviving population at arbitrarily high levels.<br /><br />I agree that the E6 sensibility is very attractive. :-)Deltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00705402326320853684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-65565301739653531712016-05-05T10:35:28.293-04:002016-05-05T10:35:28.293-04:00I believe this is assuming that the PCs are PCs by...I believe this is assuming that the PCs are PCs by virtue of being the ones who push their limits, while NPCs will by and large play it safe.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14285793254382192231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-1186947045952365042016-05-05T00:22:44.106-04:002016-05-05T00:22:44.106-04:00Won't higher level Fighters push their limits ...Won't higher level Fighters push their limits and go after higher level threats? And wouldn't that tend to reduce their numbers?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-5989653051442751032016-05-03T08:31:52.955-04:002016-05-03T08:31:52.955-04:00So...just to be clear: the fighters in this sim ar...So...just to be clear: the fighters in this sim are losing one level of experience for every two years after reaching middle age? <br /><br />Just making sure I've got it.JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03263662621289630246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-69520203645301689612016-05-03T02:34:30.540-04:002016-05-03T02:34:30.540-04:00One possibility might be to give each fighter a ch...One possibility might be to give each fighter a chance of a fight in each week, maybe with a subsequent chance of additional fights in a given week (perhaps we can theorize that if a fight happens in a week, then it is more likely that more than one will occur in that week; this could represent a fighter becoming involved in "an adventure").<br /><br />Just throwing out ideas to fine-tune this simulation to more closely approach what might happen in a D&D world.faoladhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03691952430041394614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-55820593844158745842016-05-02T15:51:44.097-04:002016-05-02T15:51:44.097-04:00Alternatively, just like how AD&D assigns diff...Alternatively, just like how AD&D assigns different starting ages for fighters and wizards, you could assign different 'decline' ages for them. Maybe after reaching Old age, you have to check for mental decline with an increasing chance for every ten additional years. Perhaps something like the following (for humans):<br /><br />At 60 years, a 10% chance of decline<br />At 70 years, a 20% chance of decline<br />At 80 years, a 30% chance of decline<br />Et cetera<br /><br />When mental degeneration is indicated by the dice, roll a d10 to find out which year during the decade the decline begins. Beginning at that point, lose one wizard level per year, and corresponding amounts of History/Knowledge skills if you're using a skill or proficiency system, as your memory fails you.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14285793254382192231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-60933011044517471932016-05-02T13:23:38.688-04:002016-05-02T13:23:38.688-04:00Well, that's way cool. I wonder how it would ...Well, that's way cool. I wonder how it would play out if it were just hit point loss with ageing, not level loss per se. I noticed int he Conan example, he lost an average of 2.1 hp per year representing about .0125% of his total. I was thinking of applying that % as a rule in my campaign.DHBoggshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02170439175265397893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-7134478113356021362016-05-02T12:45:03.849-04:002016-05-02T12:45:03.849-04:00Right, and even now, for any individual case it pr...Right, and even now, for any individual case it probably would have taken less work for Delta to calculate the exact expected values than the amount of work it took to create his simulator program. Where the program shines is in saving effort across multiple simulations - Delta can change details without having to exhaustively recalculate the whole thing.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14285793254382192231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-10327000353926249052016-05-02T12:16:41.749-04:002016-05-02T12:16:41.749-04:00Yes, sorry, I meant the simulations rather than th...Yes, sorry, I meant the simulations rather than the actual statistics (the 1970s weren't that far in the past!).<br /><br />I do a lot of modelling, and some of the methods I use were described back in the 1950s, although back then it was often easier to solve it by hand than actually get the computer to do it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-55099470047655024912016-05-02T09:59:32.029-04:002016-05-02T09:59:32.029-04:00The programming and simulation, not so much, but D...The programming and simulation, not so much, but Delta actually hasn't used any statistical tests that weren't available back then. The foundations of modern hypothesis testing was laid at the beginning of the 20th century, and by the mid-1950s was quite solidified and mature. That's not to discount the continued research still going on today, by any means; but for a good comparison of a field that has been a formal discipline for approximately the same number of years as statistics has, consider aeronautics in the early 1970s versus today.<br /><br />As for Gygax, IIRC he was an underwriter, not an actuary - though he could certainly have picked up some stats from his actuary coworkers, from his university courses, or some combination of the two.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14285793254382192231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-74143263515180724812016-05-02T09:12:00.189-04:002016-05-02T09:12:00.189-04:00Wasn't Gygax an actuary or similar at some poi...Wasn't Gygax an actuary or similar at some point? It's interesting to note that he managed to intuit a lot of this, despite (I suspect) not having access to all the programming and statistical tests that you have at your disposal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2170237526012357403.post-45121980880266962552016-05-02T09:08:51.521-04:002016-05-02T09:08:51.521-04:00So, without the aging effect, how often (% of popu...So, without the aging effect, how often (% of population) are those 70+ year old fighters appearing? 1 or 2 of those types per millennium seems pretty cool, even for mundane classes. <br />4 attacks per year for "normal" folks leading to 6th level seem right. You figure a few goblinoid attacks for the militia to fight off each spring and fall. But maybe I have become too enamored of 3rd edition "E6" playstyle.Baquieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08357103428591599364noreply@blogger.com